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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  66
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000
 
HURRICANE ALBERTO HAS FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80 TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND
TAFB.  OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND SOME DRY AIR APPEARS TO
BE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/4.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  ALBERTO IS IS STILL CAUGHT IN THE
BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO THE EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 24 HOURS WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST AND GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST TRACKS...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND
UKMET MODELS.

ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE TIGHT SST GRADIENT LOCATED ALONG 40N
LATITUDE.  BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ACCELERATED OVER COLD
...LESS THAN 20C SSTS...AND RAPIDLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 37.5N  47.9W    85 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 38.4N  47.8W    80 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 40.1N  47.2W    75 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 43.0N  45.9W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     22/1200Z 46.5N  43.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     23/1200Z 56.5N  34.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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