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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  64
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/04.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL
CONTINUES A SLOW MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE HURRICANE BLOCKING ITS PROGRESS.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
ARE FASTER...WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...ERODING
THE RIDGE AND CAUSING AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE EXTREMES AND DOES
ACCELERATE THE FORWARD SPEED TO 22 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.
 
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVE 90 KNOTS.  SSTS WELL BELOW 20
DEG C BY 48 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 36.7N  48.1W    90 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 37.4N  48.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 38.5N  47.9W    85 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 40.5N  47.2W    80 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 42.5N  46.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     23/0000Z 50.0N  40.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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