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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  58
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000

ALBERTO HAS DEVELOPED A 30 NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 60 TO 65 KT FROM THE
VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE...ALBERTO IS
BROUGHT BACK UP TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...FOR THE THIRD TIME. OUTFLOW
IS IS ONLY FAIR...BUT REMAINS CIRCULAR IN ALL QUADRANTS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL
NORTHWARD DIRECTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
LATITUDE RIDGE. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PICK UP
THE SYSTEM...ONLY A SLOW SPEED BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KT IS FORECAST. THE
OFFICAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TRACK...AND NEAR THE GFDL AND
UKMET SOULTIONS.
 
ALBERTO WILL REMIAN OVER MAGINALLY WARM SSTS...SO SOME SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 34.5N  47.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 35.4N  48.3W    70 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 36.8N  48.4W    75 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 38.3N  48.4W    75 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 39.7N  48.2W    70 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 42.3N  47.4W    65 KTS
 
 
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