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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000
 
ALBERTO HAS TRIED TO DEVELOP A RAGGED BANDING EYE OVER THE PAST FEW
HR.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION NEAR THE EYE HAS WEAKENED IN A FASHION
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55
KT...AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/6.  A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PUSHING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE NEAR ALBERTO
EASTWARD...WHICH ALLOW THE STORM TO TURN NORTH WITH TIME.  NHC TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE WITH THIS...WITH THE PRIMARY PROBLEM
BEING HOW FAST ALBERTO WILL MOVE....WHERE THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO
TWO CLUSTERS.  A RELATIVELY SLOWER CLUSTER INCLUDES THE AVN...
NHC90...THE BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND VICBAR.  A RELATIVELY FASTER
CLUSTER INCLUDES THE GFDN...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST GOES WITH THE FASTER CLUSTER IS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.
 
ALBERTO CONTINUES IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SHOWS FAIR TO
GOOD OUTFLOW EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST.  WITH THE EYE
FORMING...IT IS LIKELY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY. 
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKE ALBERTO NORTH OF THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM BY 72 HR...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST STOPS
INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENS THE STORM SLIGHTLY AT THAT TIME
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 33.7N  47.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 34.3N  48.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 35.4N  48.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 36.4N  48.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 37.5N  48.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     21/0600Z 40.5N  47.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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