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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2000
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE CENTER
OF ALBERTO. OUTFLOW IS DEVELOPING IN ALL QUADRANTS AS IT APPEARS
THAT ALBERTO HAS OBLITERATED THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN SURROUNDING
IT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND HAVE REACHED 55 KT
FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO THIS VALUE FOR
THIS ADVISORY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN
ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9...AND ALBERTO IS CONTINUING TO EXECUTE A
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC LOOP. A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND TURN
ALBERTO TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/2100Z 33.1N 46.4W 55 KTS
12HR VT 18/0600Z 33.4N 47.7W 65 KTS
24HR VT 18/1800Z 34.3N 48.6W 70 KTS
36HR VT 19/0600Z 35.4N 48.8W 75 KTS
48HR VT 19/1800Z 36.5N 48.5W 75 KTS
72HR VT 20/1800Z 39.0N 47.5W 75 KTS
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