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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2000
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO...WHICH WAS WRAPPING QUITE NICELY
AROUND THE CENTER EARLIER...HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED INTO TWO RAGGED
BANDS NE AND SW OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 45 KT.  BASED ON THIS...AND ON DRIFTING BUOY
44620 WHICH REPORTED 1001.9 MB AT 06Z...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 45
KT.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED FURTHER.  UP TO NEAR 06Z THE CYCLONE
WAS MOVING 235/9.  SINCE THEN...THE MOTION IS MORE WESTERLY AND THE
INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 260/6.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF
ALBERTO SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO
MOVE WEST FOR 12-24 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH...
WITH A GENERALLY SLOW MOTION DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ANTICYCLONE
CENTER.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH
THE OUTLYING LBAR AND VICBAR CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A 5-7 KT FORWARD SPEED.

THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR THE CURRENT HICCUP IN THE
CONVECTION...AND CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALBERTO TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 48 HR.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS
AGREE WITH THIS...AND THUS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 32.9N  44.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 32.8N  45.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 33.0N  47.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     18/1800Z 33.9N  48.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     19/0600Z 35.0N  48.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     20/0600Z 37.0N  48.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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