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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2000

ALBERTO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND IS NOW LOOKING VERY
MUCH LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN.  THERE IS A CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM IS STILL NOT QUITE
VERTICALLY STACKED AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-
LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB
MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY SINCE THE OCEAN IS
RELATIVELY WARM AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG.  ALBERTO IS
LIKELY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY BE CONSERVATIVE...IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT AND MOTION IS NOW 240/11. 
ALBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BLOCKING MID-
TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST... THEN
NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTH...IS LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
GFDL...U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND AVN MODEL RUNS INDICATE A TRACK EVEN
FARTHER TO THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH ALBERTO IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FAST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BROAD U.S. EAST COAST TROUGH AT 72
HRS...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT BE
PICKED UP AND ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AT THAT TIME.  THUS ALBERTO
MAY EARN SOME NEW LONGEVITY RECORDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 33.2N  44.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 32.8N  45.9W    55 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  47.4W    60 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 33.5N  48.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     19/0000Z 34.5N  49.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     20/0000Z 36.5N  49.0W    70 KTS
 
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