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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2000
 
ALBERTO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF RENEWED HEALTH...AS DEEP COLD
CONVECTION...COLDER THAN -70C...IS NOW PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHEAST
SIDE.  THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE STILL NOT QUITE
COINCIDENT.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT. 
ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A TRANSFORMATION FROM A SEMI-
TROPICAL TO A MORE CLASSICAL TROPICAL STRUCTURE.  AS THE WIND FIELD
TIGHTENS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS WILL CATCH UP AND GIVE A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF
THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.  WITH RELATIVELY WARMER WATER AND RELATIVELY
LOW SHEAR...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ALBERTO BACK TO
HURRICANE STATUS IN 60 HOURS.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS INCREASED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS ALBERTO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/13...EVEN FASTER THAN THIS MORNING.  THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW LONG THE WESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION WILL PERSIST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...WITH A MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE...AN EXTENDED
WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE U.S. DOES NOT APPEAR POSSIBLE.
 
ALBERTO IS NOW THE THIRD LONGEST-LASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
MONTH OF AUGUST SINCE 1900.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 33.6N  43.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 33.2N  44.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 33.0N  46.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 33.2N  48.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 33.5N  49.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 35.0N  51.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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