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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2000
 
ALTHOUGH THE SCATTEROMETER PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT ALBERTO
WAS SPINNING DOWN...NEW CONVECTION...THE MOST VIGOROUS IN AT LEAST
24 HOURS...HAS DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE AND THERE HAS BEEN
IMPROVEMENT IN THE BANDING PATTERN.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY NOT DECREASED BUT IS HELD AT 40 KT.
 
ALBERTO IS ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE MOTION OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS HAS BEEN 230/11...AND FASTER THAN THAT OVER THE PAST
SIX...AS ALBERTO MOVES AROUND A LARGE DEEP LAYER HIGH TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THAT ALBERTO
SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE STORM WILL TURN NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  THE AVN...THE BAM MODELS...AND THE
UKMET FAVOR A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 48 HR... WHILE THE GFDL
AND LBAR FAVOR MORE WESTERLY MOTIONS.  THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE IS IN BETWEEN BUT NOT FAR FROM THE GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE
CURRENT ACCELERATION AND IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD GRADUALLY WARMER WATERS...AND APPEARS TO BE
RESPONDING.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS ALBERTO TO NEARLY
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 34.3N  41.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 33.6N  43.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 33.2N  45.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 33.2N  46.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 33.5N  48.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 35.0N  49.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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