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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000
 
ALBERTO DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGES BUT THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAT 24 HOURS AGO.  SHIP
WCOB REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 90 N
MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE DATA FROM A RECENT
PASSAGE OVER ALBERTO REVEAL A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS.  DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 7 OR 8 KNOTS AROUND A
STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  ALBERTO SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THIS IS THE GENERAL
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE FSU
EXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE. 

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD WARMER WATERS AND INTO A LOWER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SMALL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEYOND 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 35.8N  39.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  40.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 34.5N  42.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  44.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 33.5N  45.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 35.0N  48.5W    50 KTS
 
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