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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 190/09.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...CONTINUING THE TRACK IN AN
ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE WIND FIELD IS BROAD AND THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION.  SHIP
REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS STILL ABOUT 45
KT...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOT THAT HIGH.  THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH
ALBERTO OVER 26C WATER...SO WE CANNOT DECLARE ALBERTO EXTRATROPICAL
YET.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND
SHIP REPORTS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 36.9N  38.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 36.3N  39.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 35.6N  40.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 35.2N  42.1W    40 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 35.0N  44.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  47.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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