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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000
 
THE FORWARD SPEED OF ALBERTO IS BEGINNING TO SLOW AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 090/14.  THERE IS A LITTLE LESS UNANIMITY ABOUT THE
FORECAST TURN IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AS IT APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING THE FORECAST IS QUALITATIVELY THE SAME AS BEFORE.  

DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DISAPPEARING AND THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT...BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 45 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE OVER
COOLER WATER AND UNDER STRONG SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED.  THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE CAUSE OF DEATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
BE BY DISSIPATION OR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE CONVECTION SEEMS
A BIT MORE INVOLVED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 39.0N  38.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 38.7N  37.1W    50 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 38.1N  36.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 37.5N  37.9W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  39.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 36.5N  42.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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