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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER BETTER AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 090/18.  THERE IS NO SIGN OF THE HARD SLOWDOWN 
FORECAST BY THE MODELS...YET NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INSISTS IT WILL
HAPPEN VERY SOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE NOW ALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND THE WINDS
ARE LOWERED TO 60 KT. THE FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER BACK OVER 25 DEGREE C
WATER AFTER 48 HOURS AND THIS COULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DECREASING
VERY FAST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 39.0N  40.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 38.7N  38.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 37.9N  38.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 37.4N  39.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 37.0N  40.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 36.5N  42.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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