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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE ALBERTO
HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 70
KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE...ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW
REMAINS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/14.  THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST
MODELS TRACK ALBERTO TO THE EAST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE TOP OF A REX-TYPE BLOCKING HIGH
AND THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO A BROAD TROUGH.  WE HAVE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED THE UKMET...GFDL...AND AVN MODEL SOULTIONS...AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 36
HOURS.

STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE TARCKS OVER COOLER
WATER...ENCOUNTERS MORE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN...AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ALBERTO COULD MERGE WITH THE BAROLCINIC ZONE AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 39.1N  43.9W    70 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 39.4N  41.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 39.0N  39.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 38.0N  38.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 37.0N  39.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 35.5N  41.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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