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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000
 
MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER AND LOWER
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE SEPARATING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
LAGGING BEHIND.  THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE IS 77 KT AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.  ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPIN DOWN OVER COOL WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/15.  BOTH THE UKMET AND THE AVN
SHOW THE HURRICANE GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND TRACKING
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WHILE SLOWING ITS
FORWARD SPEED.  THE EXPLICIT TRACK GUIDANCE HAS A HARD STOP FOLLOWED
BY SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICAL
FORECAST MAKES A HARDER TURN THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 38.9N  45.8W    75 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 39.2N  42.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 39.4N  40.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 38.6N  38.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 38.0N  38.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  39.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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