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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/16.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS
SHOW THE HURRICANE GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND TRACKING
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WHILE SLOWING ITS
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS A
LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72 HOURS...AS IS THE
GUIDANCE.

CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHRINKS
AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AS
THE TRACK CONTINUES OVER COLDER SSTS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL
WEAKENS THE HURRICANE FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS IS INCREASED TO 400 N MI TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER BASED ON A SHIP REPORT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 38.3N  49.3W    90 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 39.0N  46.5W    80 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 39.5N  43.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 39.5N  40.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  37.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     16/0600Z 36.5N  36.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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