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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2000
 
ALBERTO IS MOVING 065/15 AT THIS TIME.  THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH. THEREFORE IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE
SAME GENERAL TRACK.   HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON
AND UNANIMOUSLY SLOW DOWN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TURN IT TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC.  THIS SOLUTION WAS FIRST SUGGESTED BY THE MRF/AVN AND NOW
EVEN THE UK MODEL HAS JOINED THE CLUB.  WITH SUCH A CHANGE...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY
SLOWING DOWN THE HURRICANE BEYOND 48 HOURS AND TURNING IT A LITTLE
BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS MEANS THAT IF ALBERTO DOES NOT BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AS ANTICIPATED IT COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE AZORES.

ALBERTO CONTINUES WITH WINDS UP TO 110 KNOTS BUT IS ALREADY CROSSING
THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM AND HEADING FOR COOLER WATER.  A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL INDICATES
THAT ALBERTO WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS BUT THIS FORECAST
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER LOWER LATITUDES...ALBERTO MAY LAST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 37.1N  53.0W   110 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 38.2N  50.4W   100 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  46.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 40.0N  43.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 39.5N  40.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     15/1800Z 37.5N  36.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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