[NCEP Logo] HOME PRODUCTS FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 2000

ALBERTO HAS A VERY DISTINCT EYE WITH EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON HIGH
RESOLUTION VIS IMAGES AND ON MICROWAVE DATA.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND OBJECTIVES HAVE REACHED 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND CONTINUE
ABOUT 5.5 FROM SAB.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110
KNOTS BUT ALBERTO PROBABLY HAS ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS THE IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER
WATERS.  THIS MAKES ALBERTO A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.    

ALBERTO IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD THEN CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 15
KNOTS AND THEN EAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE
CENTER OF ALBERTO SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES BETWEEN 48 AND 72
HOURS AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  THIS IS BASICALLY THE
SOLUTION OF THE UK MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HOWEVER...MOST OF MODELS SHOW ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND THE PASSAGE NORTH OF NEAR THE AZORES AT 72 HOURS.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 36.6N  54.4W   110 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 38.1N  52.2W   100 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 40.0N  48.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 41.0N  43.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 41.5N  36.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     15/1200Z 42.0N  21.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN
2


Problems?