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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 2000
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BRING ALBERTO TO 100 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS IS ABOUT AS STRONG AS ALBERTO
WILL GET AS THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL START GETTING
COOLER WITHIN 12 HOURS.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN SSTS ARE NEAR 20 DEGREES C.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED
ON THE FORWARD SPEED REACHING ABOUT 30 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS AS THE
HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOLLOWING THE GFDL AND UKMET
MODELS. 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 35.7N  56.0W   100 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 37.3N  53.6W   100 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 39.7N  50.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 41.5N  44.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 43.0N  38.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     15/0600Z 45.0N  23.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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