[NCEP Logo] HOME PRODUCTS FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2000
 
HURRICANE ALBERTO HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY BASED ON A TAFB
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 TO 100 KT...STRONG T5.0...IMPROVED EYE
APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND A 2244Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWING A
CIRCULAR 24 NM DIAMETER EYE IN THE LOW-LEVEL 37GHZ CHANNELS. THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS CIRCULAR WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR EVIDENT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/16.  SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS HAVE BEEN
FALLING ON TRACK SO THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN
LINE WITH THE UKMET...GFDN AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE
MOST SOUTHERN AND SLOWEST OF ALL THE MODELS. HOWEVER...A SHARP
EASTWARD TRACK SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE SMALL OMEGA- OR REX-TYPE
BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE EAST WHICH SHOULD ACT TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM
FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR 40N LATITUDE BEFORE TURNING TO THE EAST.

GIVEN THE TENACITY OF ALBERTO...IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME IF THE
HURRICANE MADE ONE MORE GASP AT TRYING TO ACHIEVE MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT.
AFTER 12 HOURS...ALBERTO WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER...25C
TO 22C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL TAKES ALBERTO TO 100 KT IN 12 HOURS AND THEN RAPIDLY
WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AFTERWARDS TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN 72 HOURS.
WE HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY HIGHER IN THE LATER PERIODS DUE TO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 48 TO 60 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 35.2N  57.2W    95 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 37.4N  54.9W   100 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 39.9N  50.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 42.1N  44.2W    80 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 43.7N  36.3W    70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     15/0000Z 46.0N  19.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
NNNN


Problems?