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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 11 2000
 
AFTER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS CHANGED TO NO INTENSIFICATION...THE
EYEWALL CONVECTION BECAME MORE INTENSE AND THE EYE BECAME BETTER
DEFINED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB
ARE 90 KT...90 KT...AND 77 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE NOW WARMED A
BIT AND THE EYE IS LESS DISTINCT...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED
TO 90 KT.  DRIFTING BUOY 44765 RECENTLY REPORTED A 991.8 MB PRESSURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/12.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE...OR THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FROM THE LAST PACKAGE.  ALBERTO SHOULD FINISH CURVATURE
INTO THE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24-36 HR AND ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE IS STILL A CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE GFDL...GFDN...BAMS...LBAR...AND VICBAR THAT TURN THE HURRICANE
MORE SHARPLY TO THE EAST AND SLOWER.  THUS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THE CURRENT FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.

GIVEN THE CURRENT EGG ON THE FACE FROM THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR 12 HR OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE
ALBERTO MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS.  THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM
THROUGH THE TRANSITION...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 33.8N  58.3W    90 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 35.8N  57.2W    95 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 38.9N  53.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 41.6N  46.8W    80 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 43.5N  40.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 46.0N  25.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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