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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2000
 
ALBERTO IS SHOWING A 60 NM WIDE CLOUD FILLED EYE AND GOOD CIRRUS
OUTFLOW THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT...77
KT  AND 77 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  SINCE THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
ALBERTO IS MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL
BE ENTERING THE WESTERLIES IN 24 TO 36 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION.  ONE
INTERESTING NOTE ON THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE AVN-BASED GUIDANCE
TURNS ALBERTO MORE SHARPLY TO THE EAST AND IS SLOWER THAN THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE AVN ITSELF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.

SINCE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12
HR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN ABOUT 24 HR.  AFTER THAT...
ALBERTO SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND START TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 72 HR.  THE
AVN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL INDICATE THAT ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN A
STRONG SYSTEM THROUGH THE TRANSITION...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 32.7N  58.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 34.7N  58.6W    75 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 37.8N  55.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 40.3N  50.4W    70 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 42.5N  43.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 45.5N  29.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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