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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/16 BASED ON FOLLOWING A LARGE EYE
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE ACCELERATES THE
HURRICANE NORTH AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF A HIGH TO ITS EAST AND IS SWEPT AWAY IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
GUIDANCE AND HAS THE FORWARD MOTION TO 25 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  THE 72
HOUR POSITION IS AT A SIMILAR LONGITUDE WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET
MODELS BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST SIX
HOURS.  THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LARGE EYE FEATURE AND EXCELLENT
BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IN THE SHORT TERM AND WEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS AS COLDER WATER IS
ENCOUNTERED...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.  BASED ON THE LARGE
EYE...THE WIND SPEED RADII ARE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 31.6N  58.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 34.3N  58.9W    80 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 37.5N  56.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 40.5N  52.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 42.3N  46.8W    75 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 45.5N  35.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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