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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2000
 
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED THIS
MORNING...AND A WESTWARD ELONGATION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN
SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH IS CAUSING EASTERLY SHEAR. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 77
KT...55 KT...AND 55 KT.  A NAVY DRIFTING BUOY RECENT REPORTED 60 KT
WINDS AND A 1003.6 MB PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  ON THIS
BASIS...ALBERTO REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE.

ALBERTO CONTINUES MOVING 320/18 AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL LARGE-SCALE AND NHC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 72 HR IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THE GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RIGHT DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR ALBERTO...
THE STORM SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM IT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HR.  THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. 
STRENGTHENING SHOULD END BY 48 HR AS ALBERTO STARTS MOVING INTO
COOLER WATER.  BY 72 HOURS...ALBERTO SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 28.1N  56.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 30.3N  57.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 33.0N  58.2W    75 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 35.6N  57.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 38.0N  55.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 43.5N  47.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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