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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2000
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO HAS NOT CHANGED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ONLY THE OUTFLOW THAT HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS.  BECAUSE ALBERTO IS ABOUT TO MOVE
OVER WARMER WATERS AND WITHIN AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  HOWEVER...IT ONLY HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS TO
DO IT.
 
ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 18 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE COMBINATION
OF A TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL STEER ALBERTO NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH
36 HOURS AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT DIFFER IN THE SPEED.
 
BY 72 HOURS...ALBERTO SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 26.9N  54.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 28.9N  56.6W    70 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 31.5N  58.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 34.0N  58.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 36.5N  56.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     13/0600Z 42.0N  50.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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