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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE AUG 08 2000
 
THE CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS JUMPED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  IT IS
NOT YET CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...OR THE BEGINNING OF THE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST BY THE MODELS.  WHATEVER THE
CAUSE...THE HURRICANE HAS LOST ORGANIZATION IN THE PROCESS.  THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 65 KT...WHICH AGREES WITH THE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

WHILE THE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HR IS 320/11...THE INITIAL
MOTION REMAINS 285/11 DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER THIS IS
ACTUALLY A TURN.  CONVENTIONAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF ALBERTO...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STORM
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE STILL UNANIMOUSLY
CALLS FOR A NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
IF ALBERTO IS REALLY TURNING NORTHWEST...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
LIKELY BE SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE RIGHT.
 
THERE IS ENOUGH SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND THE CONVECTION IS NOW
DISORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT ALBERTO IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE NEXT 12 HR.  AFTER 24 HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE
IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPLIT BY 48
HR AND LEAVE ALBERTO IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  CIRRUS
OUTFLOW FROM THE HURRICANE IS IMPROVING OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...
SUGGESTING THIS PROCESS MAY ALREADY BE STARTING.  THUS...ALBERTO IS
LIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IF IT DOES NOT
BECOME TOO DISORGANIZED IN THE NEXT 24 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 18.8N  47.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 19.2N  48.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  50.8W    60 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 21.0N  53.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N  55.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 25.0N  59.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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