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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2000
 
THERE ARE INDICATIONS TONIGHT...FROM AN SSMI PASS COURTESY OF THE
NRL WEB SITE...AS WELL AS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...THAT ALBERTO IS
EXPERIENCING ENOUGH SHEAR TO BEGIN TO EXPOSE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.  SATELLITE DVORAK T NUMBERS GIVE 77 AND 55 KT...
WHICH DIFFER BY SUCH A LARGE MARGIN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT
WITH THIS ADVISORY...AND IF THE SHEARING IS CONFIRMED WITH VISIBLE
IMAGERY IN THE MORNING...THE INTENSITY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THAT TIME.  I AM CONVINCED ENOUGH OF THIS TO
FORECAST WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SUBSEQUENTLY...THE SHEAR
SHOULD LESSEN AND ALBERTO WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND WOULD LIKELY REINTENSIFY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT WITH
LESS CERTAINTY.  THE SYNOPTIC TRACK REASONING IS COMPLICATED BY THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RACING OUT AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION.  IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE ACTUAL TRACK IS LIKELY TO BE
TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST.  EVEN SO...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO KEEP ALBERTO NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 16.7N  44.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 17.0N  45.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.7N  48.1W    65 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 18.7N  50.3W    65 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 20.0N  52.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N  56.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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