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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2000
 
ALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...WITH JUST THE
FAINTEST HINT OF AN EYE IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND GOOD
CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALL 77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT FOR
THIS PACKAGE.

ALBERTO HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS
RATHER COMPLEX.  WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ALBERTO REMAINS
STRONG...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST SOME NORTHWARD MOTION.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS.  THE FIRST...WHICH INCLUDES THE CLIPER...BAMS...BAMM...AND
NHC90...CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE SECOND...WHICH INCLUDES THE BAMD...GFDL...
GFDN...GFDU...UKMET...LBAR...AND VICBAR...CALLS FOR AN IMMEDIATE
NORTHWEST MOTION...WITH VICBAR EVEN SHOWING A NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER
48 HR.  THE SECOND CAMP HAS THE MODELS THAT ARE GENERALLY MORE
RELIABLE...WHILE THE FIRST CAMP IS CLOSER TO WHAT ALBERTO IS DOING
NOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST CAMP AND WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME ELONGATED SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST...SUGGESTING THE TROUGH IS INFLUENCING THE STORM.  LARGE-
SCALE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE AVN
SPLITTING IT IN TWO WITH ALBERTO IN BETWEEN...THE UKMET DEVELOPING A
RATHER LARGE COLD LOW NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE NOGAPS
DEVELOPING A WEAKER BUT PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE HURRICANE'S PATH. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE AVN OR UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE
BETTER...BUT DOES NOT CONCLUSIVELY SHOW WHICH OF THOSE TWO MODELS
MAY BE RIGHT.  IF THE AVN VERIFIES...CONDITIONS WOULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 48 HR OF LESS FAVORABLE SHEARING
CONDITIONS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
IF ALBERTO WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND THEN RE-INTENSIFIED.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 16.3N  41.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 16.7N  43.6W    80 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 17.6N  46.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 18.8N  48.1W    80 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N  50.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N  53.5W    80 KTS
 
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