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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 06 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12...ANOTHER NUDGE TOWARD THE RIGHT. 
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BEYOND
36-48 HOURS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MAJOR TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF ALBERTO...AND LOOKS LIKE SOME OF OUTFLOW
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF SYSTEM IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL HANG BACK ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN A CONSENSUS 77 KT...AND
THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE.  A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK WILL LIMIT ACCESS TO WARM WATER AND INCREASE THE
SHEAR.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INVARIANT IN INTENSITY
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 16.0N  38.8W    75 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N  40.4W    75 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 17.5N  42.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N  44.9W    75 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N  46.9W    75 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 22.0N  51.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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