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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 06 2000
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF ALBERTO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND SIGNIFICANT
BANDING ALONG THE EAST SIDE.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING...BUT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.  SATELLITE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR
THIS PACKAGE.  FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WHILE WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL...
ALTHOUGH ALBERTO HAS DONE SURPRISINGLY WELL OVER THIS WATER SO FAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS...AND IS
NOW 275/11.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE.  AS ALBERTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE TROUGH THE FORWARD
SPEED SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  BOTH THE AVN
AND THE UKMET GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 48
HOURS...AND AS A RESULT ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...TURNS ALBERTO TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT IS SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 14.9N  36.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N  37.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 15.4N  40.4W    75 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 15.9N  43.4W    75 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N  46.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N  51.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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