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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 06 2000
 
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ALL
QUADRANTS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE BOTH 4.0...65 TO 70 KT. ALSO...AN EYEWALL CONVECTIVE BURST...
-80C TO -82C TOPS...HAS PERSISTED FOR ALMOST 3 HOURS IN THE EAST
SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST MODELS ENVELOPE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS
SHOWN NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND THE UKMET AND AVIATION MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP ON THIS...WHILE MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT RIGHT OF
TRACK BIAS. THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
TRACKING ALBERTO ON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE IS DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS...
BUT THEY GENERALLY AGREE IN TAKING THE HURRICANE MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THE 300-200 MB TROUGH
SOUTH OF 18N LATITUDE...WHILE MAINTAINING THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS TO
THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE ONLY PUT A SMALL STAIR-STEP IN THE
FORECAST TRACK IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE
WEST BY 72 HOURS SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BY 48 HOURS.

ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS A RESULT OF ALBERTO TRACKING OVER COOLER SSTS. WARM MOIST
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY INFLOW AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN
HELPING TO GENERATE STRONG CONVECTION...DESPITE THE COOL SSTS...AND
THIS MAY CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
COOL STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE FULL EFFECT
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER WARMER WATER.
 

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 14.4N  35.4W    70 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N  37.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 14.8N  40.9W    75 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.2N  43.8W    75 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N  46.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  52.0W    80 KTS
  
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