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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 05 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15 AND THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION IS
PROBABLY 270 DEGREES.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS PRETTY MUCH A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS EXCEPT THAT THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC.  WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT
65 KNOTS.  ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING TO 75 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS IS FORECAST FOLLOWING ALL OF THE USUAL GUIDANCE.  

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 14.6N  34.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 14.8N  36.6W    65 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.5N  39.8W    70 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.2N  43.1W    75 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 16.9N  46.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 17.8N  50.0W    75 KTS
 
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