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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 05 2000
 
IT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THAT THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WAS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND INDEED THE FORECAST WAS INCORRECT.
ALBERTO WAS WEAKENING EARLIER TODAY BUT IT NOW HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE.
DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0 BUT DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINS...THE CI NUMBERS
ARE BEING HELD AT 3.5 AT THIS TIME.  THE OUTFLOW HAS NOT IMPROVED
BUT A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE EYE-FEATURE.
PLENTY OF CLOUD BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND ALBERTO ON THE
EAST SIDE AND AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS FORMING. 
MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE EYE FEATURE...WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR A FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS.  
ALBERTO IS THUS BEING UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT THIS TIME. THE
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KNOTS UNTIL ALBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND 48 HOURS.   SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT SHEAR IS NOT A
PROBLEM FOR STRENGTHENING...ONLY THE SST COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
 
ALBERTO IS MOVING 280/13 BUT ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BUILD.  IF ALBERTO
INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED...IT MAY MISS THE CURRENT WEAKNESS OF THE
RIDGE AND IT WOULD THEN BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE.  THIS COULD RESULT IN TRACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE
UK...THE MRFX MODELS AND BY THE 12 UTC AVN WHICH SHOWS A VORTMAX
RAPIDLY MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 14.7N  32.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.0N  34.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N  37.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N  39.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N  43.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N  50.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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