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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI AUG 04 2000
 
...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MAXIMUM WINDS...

ALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE EVENING. 
WHILE THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER HAS DISAPPEARED...CONVECTION
REMAINS STRONG NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT
RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD MOVE ALBERTO ALONG A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WELL WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DISAGREEMENT BEING HOW FAST THE STORM WILL
MOVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
BUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE IFFY.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE...THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER.  THIS MIGHT SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS
MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR ALBERTO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HR...
WHILE THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 40 HR.  THE GFDN CALLS FOR
LITTLE STRENGTHENING.  COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THE AVN FORECASTS TO DEVELOP NEAR ALBERTO BY 72 HR. 
THIS WOULD CREATE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.  SINCE OTHER LARGE-
SCALE MODELS SHOW LESS DEVELOPMENT TO THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT YET
FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST.  AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS STILL
STRONG...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL NEGATIVES...ALBERTO COULD
STRENGTHEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 13.4N  27.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 13.8N  29.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.4N  32.6W    65 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 15.1N  35.7W    70 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 15.5N  39.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 16.5N  45.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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