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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI AUG 04 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALBERTO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  IT HAS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A BANDING-TYPE EYE TRYING
TO FORM.  SHIP V2PA9 REPORTED 35 KNOTS...1005 MB PRESSURE AND HEAVY
RAIN ABOUT 60 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER.  WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS AT THIS TIME.   THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AVN...WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE ALBERTO.  HOWEVER...SHIPS
AND THE MIT EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS BRING ALBERTO TO
75 AND 95 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY.  AT THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
GOES ALONG WITH THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SINCE THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW.  BUT...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FORECAST
HAS TO BE REVERSED TO A WEAKENING TREND OR STEADY STATE AS INDICATED
BY SOME GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND IT HAS BEEN
LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. IT DOES NOT
MEAN THAT THE STORM HAS MOVED NORTHWARD.   THE OVERALL MOTION IS
ABOUT 275/15.  ALBERTO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW...SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE VARIES IN THE DIFFERENT GLOBAL MODELS BUT IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALBERTO ON A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS ALSO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
TRACK MODELS.  THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK IS THE GFDL RUN USING THE UK
MODEL FIELDS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 12.9N  25.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 13.0N  28.3W    60 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.5N  31.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.0N  34.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N  37.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.0N  44.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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