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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI AUG 04 2000
 
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  IT HAS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES AND BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT EASTERLY
SHEAR...MOST OF THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON
THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
ALBERTO AT THIS TIME. 

ALBERTO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLY FLOW AND THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE.  THE ONLY APPARENT NEGATIVE FACTOR
FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS THE MARGINAL...25-26 DEGREE CELSIUS
OCEAN TEMPERATURE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS OR SO AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS ALBERTO TO 71 KNOTS
BY 72 HOURS.

A CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
ALBERTO COULD INDUCE A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...
MOST OF THE LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.  IF ALBERTO MISSES THE WEAKNESS...IT MAY CONTINUE
ON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.  GLOBAL MODELS WILL PROBABLY HAVE A
BETTER HANDLING OF THE STORM IN THE TODAY 12 UTC RUN.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 12.4N  25.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 12.6N  27.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 13.0N  30.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 13.5N  33.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 14.0N  36.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 15.0N  42.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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