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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI AUG 04 2000
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED  INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE BASED ON A 0657Z TRMM OVERPASS AND A DELAYED 0600Z
SHIP REPORT OF OF 45 KT AND 1007.8 MB JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME WEAK
EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WESTERLY TRACK. WE HAVE FOLLOWED MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH
36 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY THE 00Z UKMET RUN IN BENDING
THE FORECAST TRACK A LITTLE MORE DUE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS.
 
THE OVERNIGHT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE SPUN UP A
TIGHT WIND FIELD NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER BASED ON THE REPORT FROM
SHIP MZYF3 JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON
THE RECENT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. OUTFLOW IS
FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN FAVORS STEADY STRENGTHENING
AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS. 25C SST WATER LIES
JUST N OF 14N LATITUDE WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE TO MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE
COOL WATER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 12.2N  22.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 12.6N  25.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 13.1N  28.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 13.5N  31.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 13.9N  34.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N  40.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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