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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2000
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AND THERE IS ONLY A WEAK CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM.  I AM NOT CERTAIN IF THERE IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION
BUT QUICKSCAT CERTAINLY SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE IN THE LATEST SWATH.   IT
APPEARS THAT COOL WATER AND CLIMATOLOGY ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR
STRENGTHENING SINCE WIND SHEAR IS LOW.  SHIPS MODEL LIKES THE SYSTEM
AND BRINGS IT TO 50 TO 55 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 AND 72 HOURS.  BY THEN...
THE DEPRESSION WOULD BE OVER 27 DEGREE WATER AND ONLY 9 KNOTS OF
WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN THE SHORT TERM...SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE DEPRESSION.  IN FACT.. BOTH GFDL AND UK MODELS DISSIPATE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN TWO DAYS.

DUE TO CONTINUITY...WE ARE KEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION AT
THIS TIME BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE TO DECLARE IT A
TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY AND DISCONTINUE THE ADVISORIES. FOR
NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE DEPRESSION AT 30 KNOTS AND IN
CASE IT SURVIVES...IT BRINGS THE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  

A STRONGER THAN NORMAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS
FORCED THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE ON A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 48 HOURS.  A TURN MORE THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE
DEPRESSION ON THIS GENERAL TRACK.   
 
FORECASTER AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z  9.8N  37.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z  9.8N  40.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 10.0N  44.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 10.0N  48.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 11.0N  52.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N  58.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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