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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2000

A SYMMETRIC BALL OF FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER SHOULD BE
IF THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/15 IS CORRECT.  IF THE CENTER
IS ACTUALLY DIRECTLY UNDER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONVECTION THEN THE
FORWARD SPEED MIGHT BE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS.  ANYHOW...THE FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH THE
FORWARD SPEED INCREASING TO 17 TO 18 KNOTS.  THIS IS BASED ON THE
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAINING A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION.

THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTION ALSO
AFFECTS THE INTENSITY...WHICH COULD BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IF IT
IS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH.  WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY TO
SETTLE THIS.  THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AT DEPRESSION STATUS FOR THIS
ADVISORY BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE SHIPS MODEL OR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THIS CONVECTION.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 10.2N  35.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 10.4N  37.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 10.8N  41.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 11.5N  45.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 12.3N  49.1W    50 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 13.5N  56.0W    55 KTS
 
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