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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2000
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST
12 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5 FROM TAFB AND 1.0 FROM SAB...AND
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SO LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A SLOW
NORTHWEST DRIFT LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INCREASES THE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET
MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECASTS.
ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IF FORECAST DUE TO THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH HOLDS THE INTENSITY NEAR 30 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS INDICATE A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW
THE DEPRESSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY PREDICTION...INTERESTS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.0N 93.5W 25 KTS
12HR VT 09/0000Z 21.3N 93.9W 25 KTS
24HR VT 09/1200Z 21.9N 94.4W 30 KTS
36HR VT 10/0000Z 23.0N 95.0W 35 KTS
48HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 95.5W 35 KTS
72HR VT 11/1200Z 26.5N 96.0W 35 KTS
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