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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2000
 
AS OFTEN OCCURS IN A CYCLONE AT THIS STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS SHOWN A SHARP
DIURNAL DECREASE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN 25 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF THE
CYCLONE.

LAST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE POORLY-DEFINED
CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
ANALYSES INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. THIS COMBINATION IS
PRODUCING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TURN BY 72 HR. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...BUT
IS SLOWER THAN THE AVN AND THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...WHICH HAVE THE
DEPRESSION BETWEEN 27.5N-29.5N BY 72 HR.
 
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH IS CAUSING WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE CYCLONE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON PERSISTENCE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE...BUT DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF HOW MUCH
SHEAR WILL OCCUR OVER THE DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN WILL BE AFTER 24 HR...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY
WHERE IT IS IN RELATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THUS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY
36 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR NO
STRENGTHENING AT ALL DUE TO THE SHEAR.

ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS CURRENTLY INDICATED...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 20.8N  92.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N  93.1W    25 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N  93.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.3N  93.9W    35 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 23.0N  94.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  95.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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