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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 07 2000
 
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE DURING THE DAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...A REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER IS LIKELY.  FLUCTUATIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT.   HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ORGANIZED
ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
THIS TIME.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AND BOTH
IR IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
THE SHEAR IS ALREADY DECREASING.  THIS MAY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS INDICATED BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 21.2N  93.1W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.8N  93.5W    25 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N  93.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  94.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.5N  94.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 25.5N  96.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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