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BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
 
...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LENNY CONTINUING TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
 
THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT MAY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH OR WARNING LATER
TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THEIR RESPONSIBILITY.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195
KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX.
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER
THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  LENNY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM. AN OBSERVER ON ST. CROIX RECENTLY REPORTED 42
MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 79 MPH...AND THE AIRPORT ON ST. CROIX
RECENTLY REPORTED 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 54 MPH.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.7 N... 66.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM AST AND 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
 
BEVEN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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