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ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU OCT 21 1999 ...JOSE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...NOW A MINIMAL HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA... NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY. AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALL REMAINING WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. JOSE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. JOSE HAS WEAKENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER ISLANDS WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO BE 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE. HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 64.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FRANKLIN STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC. NNNN