HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE AUG 24 1999

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.  RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.0
WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...NORTH OF THE TURKS ISLAND.
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 
9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE  PLANE INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. 
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...22.5 N... 71.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
 
 
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