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BULLETIN  
HURRICANE BRET ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 1999

..COR TO REMOVE THE WORD WARNING AFTER WATCH...

...BRET...A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THREATENING THE COASTS
OF TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS.  HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM EAST OF
PORT OCONNOR TO FREEPORT.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA SOUTHWARD TO
TUXPAN MEXICO.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BRET WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND REACONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE

95.1 WEST  OR ABOUT 155 MILES...245 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF THIS TURN
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE SOON...HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.  RESIDENTS AND LOCAL
OFFICIALS WILL NEED TO BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTIONS.
  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES BRET A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH
OF THE HURRICANE.  EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF MOTION OF THE HURRICANE.
 
ONSHORE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM SURGE COASTAL FLOODING OF UP TO
10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS. 

FOR LOCAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS BEING ISSUED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN YOUR AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...25.2 N... 95.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT...SUNDAY.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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