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HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU OCT 14 1999

...IRENE MOVES OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH...NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
FLAMINGO TO BOCA GRANDE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CIUDAD HAVANA...MATANZAS AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST THAN ANTICIPATED.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE THREAT TO THE UPPER KEYS AND SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WILL INCREASE AND AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.   

RADARS FROM KEY WEST AND CUBA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRENE
MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS.   AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.4 WEST... ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.  THIS IS ABOUT 170 MILES
...275 KM ...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 9 MPH...15 KPH 
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK LATER TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE
WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.  
 
HEAVY RAINS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...22.2 N... 82.4 W. MOVEMENT...
NORTHEAST 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 
5 PM EDT.
 
AVILA
 
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