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HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1699
2100Z WED NOV 17 1999
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  64.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  934 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT
64 KT....... 50NE  60SE  45SW  25NW
50 KT....... 75NE 120SE  60SW  40NW
34 KT.......100NE 180SE 125SW  90NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  64.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  64.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.4N  63.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  45SW  25NW
50 KT... 75NE 120SE  60SW  40NW
34 KT...100NE 180SE 125SW  90NW
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N  62.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  45SW  25NW
50 KT... 75NE 120SE  60SW  40NW
34 KT...100NE 180SE 125SW  90NW
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N  61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  45SW  25NW
50 KT... 75NE 120SE  60SW  40NW
34 KT...100NE 180SE 125SW  90NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  64.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.5N  60.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 120SE  60SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 120SE  60SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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