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HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1699
0300Z TUE NOV 16 1999
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  ALSO AT 11 PM
EST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM CABO BEATA TO CABO ENGANO.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE SOUTH COASTS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  73.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT 12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW   0NW
50 KT....... 75NE  60SE  60SW  25NW
34 KT.......125NE 125SE 125SW  50NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 200SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  73.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  73.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N  71.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW   0NW
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  25NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW  50NW
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N  68.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  50NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW  90NW
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  50NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW  90NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  73.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N  65.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  50NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  50NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
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