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HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1399
2100Z FRI OCT 15 1999
 
...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
FERNANDINA BEACH TO SAVANNAH...

AT 5PM...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE ANCLOTE KEYS ON
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH...INCLUDING ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 5PM...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO
FERNANDINA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
AT 5PM...2100 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 5PM...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR NORTH OF
FERNANDINA BEACH TO SAVANNAH GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BIMINI...GRAND
BAHAMA...AND THE ABACO ISLANDS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  81.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT 10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  95 KT
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW  45NW
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  75SW 100NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  75SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  81.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  81.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.8N  81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  70 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE  40SW  40NW
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.6N  81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  60 KT
34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  40NW
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.6N  81.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  60 KT
34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  40NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N  81.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.5N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 39.5N  74.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FRANKLIN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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